USD/JPY: Wave analysis and forecast for 01.07 – 08.07: Downtrend continues.

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Estimated pivot point is at the level of 103.46.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 103.46 with the target of 97.70.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 103.46 will trigger further rise up to 106.80.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the long-term downtrend continues. It is assumed that within this trend the fifth wave is being developed. It is likely that the local correction as the fourth wave (iv) has completed. If this assumption is correct, the pair can continue to decline to 97.70. Critical level for this scenario is 103.46.

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